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First wave of Britain’s coronavirus outbreak could be OVER by July 13 with daily positive tests falling to zero in all four countries, study claims

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  • Economists from London and Washington DC projected future case counts
  • They said number of new daily cases appears to be falling faster over time
  • England will likely be last to see the virus die out, with Wales first, they said  
  • Here’s how to help people impacted by Covid-19

Britain’s coronavirus outbreak could have died out by July 13 — with daily confirmed cases dropping to zero in all four nations, a study has claimed.

The research, by a pair of economists, estimates the number of Brits testing positive for Covid-19 will fall to a daily average of zero in just three weeks’ time.

Wales will be first to hit the milestone on June 28, according to the projection. Public Health Wales said 100 people were diagnosed with the virus on Saturday.

Northern Ireland will then follow suit on July 2 and Scotland a day later. England will achieve the feat on July 13, the researchers claim.

The Department of Health is still diagnosing an average of 1,200 people each day — 0.8 per cent of the 150,000 tests it claims to be doing, on average.

But there are thought to be an extra 2,000 to 3,000 people catching the virus each day, with many of them not getting tested or not even realising they are ill.

The study did not make an estimate for how many cases will still be circulating in the community and only projected the number of confirmed infections.

Experts are all but certain there will be future outbreaks of the disease but improved testing and surveillance mean they are likely to be smaller and better contained than the nationwide crisis that crippled Britain this time around.

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Published at Dailymail By SAM BLANCHARD SENIOR HEALTH REPORTER FOR MAILONLINE

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